Monday’s trading session witnessed a significant decline in the price of gold as a result of a significant increase in US interest rates. This resulted in an increased focus on the US currency, which weighed on the gold market. Frankly, I believe this was more of an excuse than anything else, as the market had risen excessively. Obviously, the $2000 level has a great deal of psychological significance, so it’s not surprising that this region offers a great deal of resistance. Given that the market had been quite parabolic in the past, it would have been unreasonable to expect $2000 to be cleaved through without difficulty.
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However, this does not mean that the gold market is no longer bullish, and it is likely that this step will be viewed as a potential purchasing opportunity, which will be exacerbated if the U.S. dollar begins to lose significant strength. On the other hand, there are numerous other reasons to believe that gold will continue to experience a great deal of purchasing pressure, including the possibility of wealth preservation and, of course, global uncertainty.
Central banks have been aggressively purchasing gold, so the market has a bit of a floor regardless. The $1900 level, as well as the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is located just below the $1900 level, will undoubtedly be a focal point for a large number of investors. The market has been a touch overbought, so we may need to work off some of that froth by either drawing back substantially or spending time oscillating.
If we are able to break out above the recent highs, then it is likely that the market will soon target the $2050 or even $2100 level. I have no interest in shorting this market in the near future, but I am cognizant of the significance of the area we just tested, so I believe it will take some time to break back above it, unless there is a fundamental cause for gold to abruptly explode higher.