The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) has been reached by silver during Monday’s session. Nevertheless, the market is still very much in a decline, and this has not changed despite the fact that this has been a really spectacular and impressive rise. The actual battle will likely occur closer to $20, and if we cannot even reach that level, I would not hesitate to short silver. There are numerous factors that could influence my decision to do so.
Not the least of which is the fact that the U.S. dollar remains the strongest currency in the world. Yes, the dollar is being sold off fairly aggressively on Monday, but this is hardly a trend shift. Silver is extremely susceptible to risk aversion, and consequently the U.S. dollar.
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You should not take a silver rally seriously until we break above $21. In such a case, we will have broken a significant trendline and witnessed a big breakout. Despite this, I do not anticipate this happening anytime soon. I shall be on the lookout for signs of fatigue that I may exploit, and I will not hesitate to do so. The fundamentals have not altered, and given we are entering a recession, I anticipate that silver demand will continue to decline in the future. Ultimately, silver will lag gold over the longer term, so long as the economic climate remains challenging.