The silver market has risen substantially over the past week, surpassing the $21.50 level to indicate strength. In addition, the market has surpassed both the 200-Week EMA and the 50-Week EMA, which suggests further upward momentum. However, there is a substantial amount of selling pressure above, so I believe that the rally that appears to be forming is more likely to be temporary than permanent.
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Keep in mind that next week there will be a Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and as a result, there will be a great deal of commotion. The magnitude of the weekly candlestick is extremely bullish, but since we don’t know what the Federal Reserve will do and interest rate expectations are all over the place, I believe the only thing you can rely on over the next week or so is volatility.
If we reverse direction and breach below the 200-Week EMA, it is possible that we could reach the $21 level. Alternatively, if we break above the crest of the candlestick for the previous week, we could target the $23.50 or even $24 level. In either case, I believe you should be extremely cautious with your position sizing, as the market is essentially in the midst of attempting to find its footing in one direction or the other.
Expect significant trading activity surrounding the FOMC decision, followed by the statement and press conference. Quite candidly, position sizing is more important than anything else because it protects your account.
