During the trading week, silver initially retreated slightly, but the market has since witnessed a significant return of purchasing pressure. Alternately, silver is attempting to eliminate a massive block of disturbance that extends from $23.50 to $24.60. In addition, there will likely be considerable resistance at the $25 level, based on historical clamor and, of course, historical resistance. If we can breach above $25, the market could rise substantially.
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If we reverse direction and break below the bottom of the weekly candlestick, it is conceivable that we will fall to the 50-Week EMA and therefore offer some value. This market is currently so overbought that I believe it is only a matter of time before we experience a retracement. From a longer-term perspective, $20 could be viewed as the floor, with a level just below $25 representing the ceiling. As we are closer to the peak than the basement, it appears that a pullback is imminent. Nevertheless, a break above the $25 level could pave the way for a move to the $26 level. Anything above that would then be subject to a massive air pocket that could propel the market much higher.
Ultimately, I believe this scenario could encounter a variety of headwinds and tailwinds, not the least of which would be the U.S. dollar. If the U.S. dollar begins to strengthen, it is highly probable that the silver market will suffer. We’ve gotten a little ahead of ourselves in this circumstance, so I believe it’s only a matter of time before we need to pull back in order to discover value. In light of this, I believe that you may need to set up the trade on a daily chart while examining the weekly chart for signals of support and resistance for a larger move.