Natural gas prices have crashed during Wednesday trading, as it appears that the US contract will finally behave like a domestic market. Europe becomes a lot less of a burden on the rest of the globe as a result of the opening of Freeport, which permits a greater flow into LNG markets worldwide. Beyond that, a significant winter storm just passed through North America, and it did not appear to be as devastating as people had anticipated.
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In terms of demand, natural gas markets have recently seen a perfect storm due to the crisis in Ukraine, the maintenance of a few refineries in the United States, and rising inflation. Now that everyone expects the economy to collapse, industrial demand for natural gas will undoubtedly decline, and despite the fact that we are in the “peak season” for natural gas cyclically, we had been so elevated that a quick selloff takes us back to a more normal level. Since several years ago, this $4.50 level has been the highest point of the year.
Due to this, I feel we have further to go, maybe opening the door for a move down to the $4.00 level, and I believe the $4.50 level above should provide some resistance continuing forward. Fading rallies continue to be effective, since the momentum is decisively bearish and this has begun to get quite unpleasant. Yes, there will be a bounce eventually, but let it happen, stand aside for a day or two, and begin shorting again at the first hint of weakness, since this has been fairly effective in recent times.