During Thursday’s trading session, gold markets first attempted to advance, but rapidly surrendered gains. This indicates that gold may not have sufficient momentum to sustain its ascent, and a correction is imminent. If this is the case, one may assume that interest rates in the United States will begin to rise, but at this time, any conceivable change is merely speculation. Ultimately, gold is a very volatile asset that closely follows interest rates and is consequently at the mercy of the bond market. At this time, I believe extreme caution is required, although I favor a decline, at least in the short run.
The $1750 level is expected to provide substantial support, so you should be aware of its possible significance. I believe that there will be more noise than anything else, but this shouldn’t come as a surprise given how noisy the markets have been in general. The 200 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has recently provided resistance, and I believe it should continue to be your primary indicator of whether we are in an uptrend or a downturn.
Currently, I believe it indicates that it is more probable than not that we will continue to decline, although I do not necessarily view a collapse as “imminent.” I would sell short-term rallies until we clear the 200-day exponential moving average, but I would not overstay my welcome. Short-term charts will likely continue to be the most useful tool for navigating this market.
