Following a sharp rise in the futures market on Monday, silver has retreated slightly. As a result, it appears that we are attempting to establish a base from which the market can rebound. It might be worth noting that the $21 level has been important previously, and therefore it makes a lot of sense that there would be noisy behavior in that general vicinity. It’s also close to the 50% Fibonacci level, so I believe the market is paying heed.
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However, because of all the commotion up top, you’ll need to maintain focus on more than one layer at a time. The 200-Day EMA, which is currently around $21.90, is the first one. It appears to be attempting to break down below that 200-Day EMA, creating the so-called “death cross,” and the 50-Day EMA is located just above it. Having said that, the “death cross” is often too late, so I don’t place too much stock in it.
I believe we could return to the $23.50 level, from which we sold off so sharply, if we can rise above the $22 level. It’s likely to be very challenging to rise above that region because of its historical significance. All things being equal, this is a market that is attempting to predict its future direction, and it must naturally account for the potential for both rising and falling industrial use, as well as the negative correlation it usually exhibits with the US currency.
I believe that the silver market will continue to be extremely volatile, and you should therefore view it primarily as a short-term trading opportunity. There is a great deal of uncertainty in the marketplace, which will cause some of the more volatile markets, such as silver, to remain, to say the least, extremely volatile.
