Silver continues to be rather weak, indicating that the market lacks sufficient buying impetus to boost it. Whether or not this continues to be the case is an entirely different question, but at this time I believe it’s likely that we will continue to observe a great deal of erratic behavior. As a result, I believe you should be cautious with your position size, though I could make the same case for silver in general. In light of this, I believe that there is a great deal of noise ready to enter the picture, so while I do believe that we will eventually see a rebound, the market may very well have to target the $21 level.
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If we break below the $21 level, it is highly likely that this market will decline further, possibly to the $20 level. I think that there will be a great deal of interest in this market in that region, possibly opening the door to a much larger relocation, because it is such a large area of interest. Nonetheless, if the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near the $22 level is broken, then a move to the 50-day EMA, which is located near $22.77, is possible. Breaking above that opens the door for a massive move higher.
In any case, be extremely careful with your position size, as silver is extraordinarily volatile even in the best of circumstances. I do not anticipate that this situation will be any different, thus it is prudent to proceed with caution.
