As the 50 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) enters Tuesday’s trading session, silver prices have retreated somewhat. So doing, the market appears to be adhering to the overall downtrend, so it will be intriguing to see how this develops. I feel that a reversal below the $20.00 level would likely result in an increase in selling. In such a scenario, I expect silver to fall below the $19.00 level within the following several days.
I would also like to point out that there is a gap on the futures chart roughly at the $19.00 mark, so everything fits together quite well. In such a scenario, it is probable that the market will continue to experience a great deal of negative, although there may be some support towards the bottom of the gap, around $18.50. Notably, the $18.00 level has provided support recently; so, a break below there would represent a significant capitulation for silver in general.
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There are reasons in favor of full capitulation, especially if a recession is imminent and silver demand would almost likely decline. Remember that silver is currently more of an industrial metal than a precious one.
Consequently, if we surpass the $21 level, I believe this market has sufficient momentum to pursue the 200-day exponential moving average. This would certainly be related to a weakening US currency, so keep an eye on the US Dollar Index.
