Throughout the course of the week’s trading sessions, natural gas prices have fluctuated despite our attempts to maintain the 50-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the uptrend line from the wider channel we had been in. Ultimately, I believe that this market will continue to have a great deal of volatility; therefore, I believe that we will have to wait and see if we can recover. A bounce makes a certain amount of logic, but if we were to rebound from here, we would almost certainly run into difficulty at some point.
A short-term rise does make sense, but I believe it will be difficult to surpass the $8 level. Alternatively, if we were to break below the bottom of the previous two weeks, this would create the potential for a decline to the $6.00 or $5.50 level. Keep in mind that natural gas continues to be historically expensive, but most of what we are observing here is an attempt to price in a recession and, as a result, less demand from industrial users.
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The last couple of candlesticks have been fairly tight, which normally indicates an impending turnaround, but unfortunately there has been no follow-through as of yet. If you were to accept the post, I would not be married to it for more than a week or two. The alternative choice is to move in a different direction and attempt to sort it out in the interim.